ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Value Composite Review & Quant Update

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The Value Composite score of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is 21.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is 14.

Investors can employ various techniques in order to study stocks. Two of the most widely used techniques are fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis includes crunching the numbers for specific companies. This may involve reviewing the cash flow statement, income statement, and balance sheet. In essence, fundamental analysts are trying to figure out the company’s value. Once the value of a company is determined, the investor can then make investment decisions based on the research. Using this method, a stock that is trading underneath the intrinsic value may be considered a good pick. Technical traders typically hold the view that all the data they need to know about a stock can be discovered to using charts.

Technicals at a Glance

In taking a look at some other notable technicals, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)’s ROIC is 0.149966. The ROIC 5 year average is 0.039179 and the ROIC Quality ratio is 2.249328. ROIC is a profitability ratio that measures the return that an investment generates for those providing capital. ROIC helps show how efficient a firm is at turning capital into profits.

There are many different tools to determine whether a company is profitable or not.  One of the most popular ratios is the “Return on Assets” (aka ROA).  This score indicates how profitable a company is relative to its total assets.  The Return on Assets for ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is 0.101828.  This number is calculated by dividing net income after tax by the company’s total assets.  A company that manages their assets well will have a higher return, while a company that manages their assets poorly will have a lower return.

Shareholder Yield

We also note that ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has a Shareholder Yield of 0.054707 and a Shareholder Yield (Mebane Faber) of 0.07135. The first value is calculated by adding the dividend yield to the percentage of repurchased shares. The second value adds in the net debt repaid yield to the calculation. Shareholder yield has the ability to show how much money the firm is giving back to shareholders via a few different avenues. Companies may issue new shares and buy back their own shares. This may occur at the same time. Investors may also use shareholder yield to gauge a baseline rate of return.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has a current MF Rank of 2822. Developed by hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt, the intention of the formula is to spot high quality companies that are trading at an attractive price. The formula uses ROIC and earnings yield ratios to find quality, undervalued stocks. In general, companies with the lowest combined rank may be the higher quality picks.

M-Score (Beneish)

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has an M-score Beneish of -2.894166. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

When compared to technical analysis, fundamental analysis typically uses a longer-term approach. Chartists may use a time horizon of days, hours, or even minutes. Fundamental analysis may track data going back many years. The difference in timeframe between the two can be seen with how each investing style may be used. Traders may only be looking to make quick trades and capitalize on short-term market movements. Longer-term investors may be looking to hold an investment for months or even years. Some investors will use a combination that studies the technicals and the fundamentals. Fundamentals may be used to identify which stock to buy, while viewing the technicals can be used to sort out the timing of the trade.

Price Index

We can now take aquick look at some historical stock price index data. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.84673. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 0.92954, the 24 month is 1.37111, and the 36 month is 1.41315. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 0.98358, the 3 month is 0.87326, and the 1 month is currently 0.95867.

Scores

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength.  The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not.  The Piotroski F-Score of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is 8.  A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.  The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings.  It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue.  The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has a current ERP5 Rank of 6305. The ERP5 Rank may assist investors with spotting companies that are undervalued. This ranking uses four ratios. These ratios are Earnings Yield, ROIC, Price to Book, and 5 year average ROIC. When looking at the ERP5 ranking, it is generally considered the lower the value, the better.

When looking at technical analysis, one of the leading concepts is that of the trend. Chartists are constantly looking to identify trends to help determine which way a stock price is moving. Trends may not always be easy to spot, but they can be highly useful when identified. When looking at the stock market, an example of an upward trend is generally classified as a stock price that over time keeps reaching higher highs and higher lows. On the flip side, a downward trend is usually identified by spotting a stock that has been hitting lower lows and lower highs. Defining trends may take the novice trader some time to figure out, but learning how to properly study charts may help bring in steady profits in the future. 

At the time of writing, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) has a Piotroski F-Score of 8. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.